100元+道歉，两经济学家打赌中国经济好转
但愿中国经济学家，能为国家的经济政策做点什么？
看看你们美国同行在干什么吧！
Yesterday, 122 economists signed a letter addressed to Nancy Pelosi and Robert Byrd (the President pro tempore of the Senate) stating their concern for Treasury's bailout plan.
To the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate: As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan: 1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise. 2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards. 3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, America's dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted. For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.
致住宅市场的代表和临时参议院主席:
作为经济学家,我们想向国会表达我们对由财政部长保尔森提出的应对次级债方案的密切关注。我们确实看到了现在我们国家金融情况的困境,同时我们也同意我们需要一些打破常规的行动来保证我们的金融体系能继续有效运行。但是,我们看了目前这个提案三个致命的弱点。
(1)它的公平性。这个计划是用纳税人的钱去补贴给投资者。投资者在有风险的情况下去创造盈利,需要能够承受损失。并不是每一个商业的崩溃都会影响系统的风险。政府应该确保一个功能良好的金融业,并能够给一些信誉良好的借贷者贷出贷款,如果没有救援计划的话,很多投资者的和机构的选择被证明是非常不明智的。
(2)它的含糊不清。新机构的任务和监管都不清晰。如果纳税人从问题卖者那里购买了一些非现金资产或者是不透明资产,购买的时间,场合,和方法都应该之前说的非常的清晰,并要在以后谨慎的监视。
(3)它的长期作用。如果计划开始颁布,它的作用将会影响我们整整一代人,对于我们现在面临的所有困境,美国的动力和有创新性个人资本市场带给我们国家无法比拟的繁荣。从本质上讲,为了使短期的崩溃中止,而弱化这些市场是非常短视的。
因为上述原因,我们希望国会不要忙于定论,去恰当的听从建议,并认真考虑这个计划的正确性,能明智的决定美国的金融体系的未来和美国多年后的经济。
翻译者:王卓玮
Signed (updated 9/24/2008 10:30AM CT) 签名者
Acemoglu Daron (Massachussets Institute of Technology)Adler Michael (Columbia University)Admati Anat R. (Stanford University)Alvarez Fernando (University of Chicago)Andersen Torben (Northwestern University)Barankay Iwan (University of Pennsylvania)Barry Brian (University of Chicago)Beim David (Columbia University)Berk Jonathan (Stanford University)Bisin Alberto (New York University)Bittlingmayer George (University of Kansas)Boldrin Michele (Washington University)Brooks Taggert J. (University of Wisconsin)Brynjolfsson Erik (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)Buera Francisco J.(UCLA)Carroll Christopher (Johns Hopkins University)Cassar Gavin (University of Pennsylvania)Chaney Thomas (University of Chicago)Chari Varadarajan V. (University of Minnesota)Chauvin Keith W. (University of Kansas)Chintagunta Pradeep K. (University of Chicago)Christiano Lawrence J. (Northwestern University)Cochrane John (University of Chicago)Coleman John (Duke University)Constantinides George M. (University of Chicago)Crain Robert (UC Berkeley)Culp Christopher (University of Chicago)De Marzo Peter (Stanford University)Dubé Jean-Pierre H. (University of Chicago)Edlin Aaron (UC Berkeley)Eichenbaum Martin (Northwestern University)Ely Jeffrey (Northwestern University)Eraslan Hülya K. K.(Johns Hopkins University)Faulhaber Gerald (University of Pennsylvania)Feldmann Sven (University of Melbourne)Fernandez-Villaverde Jesus (University of Pennsylvania)Fox Jeremy T. (University of Chicago)Frank Murray Z.(University of Minnesota)Fuchs William (University of Chicago)Fudenberg Drew (Harvard University)Gabaix Xavier (New York University)Gao Paul (Notre Dame University)Garicano Luis (University of Chicago)Gerakos Joseph J. (University of Chicago)Gibbs Michael (University of Chicago)Goettler Ron (University of Chicago)Goldin Claudia (Harvard University)Gordon Robert J. (Northwestern University)Guadalupe Maria (Columbia University)Hagerty Kathleen (Northwestern University)Hamada Robert S. (University of Chicago)Hansen Lars (University of Chicago)Harris Milton (University of Chicago)Hart Oliver (Harvard University)Hazlett Thomas W. (George Mason University)Heaton John (University of Chicago)Heckman James (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)Henderson David R. (Hoover Institution)Henisz, Witold (University of Pennsylvania)Hertzberg Andrew (Columbia University)Hite Gailen (Columbia University)Hitsch Günter J. (University of Chicago)Hodrick Robert J. (Columbia University)Hopenhayn Hugo (UCLA)Hurst Erik (University of Chicago)Imrohoroglu Ayse (University of Southern California)Israel Ronen (London Business School)Jaffee Dwight M. (UC Berkeley)Jagannathan Ravi (Northwestern University)Jenter Dirk (Stanford University)Jones Charles M. (Columbia Business School)Kaboski Joseph P. (Ohio State University)Kaplan Ethan (Stockholm University)Karolyi, Andrew (Ohio State University)Kashyap Anil (University of Chicago)Keim Donald B (University of Pennsylvania)Ketkar Suhas L (Vanderbilt University)Kiesling Lynne (Northwestern University)Klenow Pete (Stanford University)Koch Paul (University of Kansas)Kocherlakota Narayana (University of Minnesota)Koijen Ralph S.J. (University of Chicago)Kondo Jiro (Northwestern University)Korteweg Arthur (Stanford University)Kortum Samuel (University of Chicago)Krueger Dirk (University of Pennsylvania)Ledesma Patricia (Northwestern University)Lee Lung-fei (Ohio State University)Leuz Christian (University of Chicago)Levine David I.(UC Berkeley)Levine David K.(Washington University)Linnainmaa Juhani (University of Chicago)Lucas Robert (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)Luttmer Erzo G.J. (University of Minnesota)Manski Charles F. (Northwestern University)Martin Ian (Stanford University)Mayer Christopher (Columbia University)Mazzeo Michael (Northwestern University)McDonald Robert (Northwestern University)Meadow Scott F. (University of Chicago)Mehra Rajnish (UC Santa Barbara)Mian Atif (University of Chicago)Middlebrook Art (University of Chicago)Miguel Edward (UC Berkeley)Miravete Eugenio J. (University of Texas at Austin)Miron Jeffrey (Harvard University)Moretti Enrico (UC Berkeley)Moriguchi Chiaki (Northwestern University)Moro Andrea (Vanderbilt University)Morse Adair (University of Chicago)Mortensen Dale T. (Northwestern University)Mortimer Julie Holland (Harvard University)Muralidharan Karthik (UC San Diego)Nevo Aviv (Northwestern University)Ohanian Lee (UCLA)Pagliari Joseph (University of Chicago)Papanikolaou Dimitris (Northwestern University)Paul Evans (Ohio State University)Peltzman Sam (University of Chicago)Perri Fabrizio (University of Minnesota)Phelan Christopher (University of Minnesota)Piazzesi Monika (Stanford University)Piskorski Tomasz (Columbia University)Rampini Adriano (Duke University)Reagan Patricia (Ohio State University)Reich Michael (UC Berkeley)Reuben Ernesto (Northwestern University)Roberts Michael (University of Pennsylvania)Rogers Michele (Northwestern University)Rotella Elyce (Indiana University)Ruud Paul (Vassar College)Safford Sean (University of Chicago)Sandbu Martin E. (University of Pennsylvania)Sapienza Paola (Northwestern University)Savor Pavel (University of Pennsylvania)Scharfstein David (Harvard University)Seim Katja (University of Pennsylvania)Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)Shimer Robert (University of Chicago)Shore Stephen H. (Johns Hopkins University)Siegel Ron (Northwestern University)Smith David C. (University of Virginia)Smith Vernon L.(Chapman University- Nobel Laureate)Sorensen Morten (Columbia University)Spiegel Matthew (Yale University)Stevenson Betsey (University of Pennsylvania)Stokey Nancy (University of Chicago)Strahan Philip (Boston College)Strebulaev Ilya (Stanford University)Sufi Amir (University of Chicago)Tabarrok Alex (George Mason University)Taylor Alan M. (UC Davis)Thompson Tim (Northwestern University)Tschoegl Adrian E. (University of Pennsylvania)Uhlig Harald (University of Chicago)Ulrich, Maxim (Columbia University)Van Buskirk Andrew (University of Chicago)Veronesi Pietro (University of Chicago)Vissing-Jorgensen Annette (Northwestern University)Wacziarg Romain (UCLA)Weill Pierre-Olivier (UCLA)Williamson Samuel H. (Miami University)Witte Mark (Northwestern University)Wolfers Justin (University of Pennsylvania)Woutersen Tiemen (Johns Hopkins University)Zingales Luigi (University of Chicago)
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